There are a couple of different ways to predict tsunamis. Tsunamis are predicted similarly to normal earthquakes. One of the best ways to predict a tsunami is by making use of the seismograph network. This often causes false alarms, because not all ocean disturbances/earthquakes lead to tsunamis, but at least the people are prepared anyway, which is better than the alternative – being taken by surprise. The U.S. Tsunami Warning System was established in 1949 and was originally confined to the Pacific region, although now it has been expanded. They predict most tsunamis by using wave gauges and pressure monitors. Whenever they detect pressure building up in the Earth’s crust, then they know to warn the people who may be affected by the seismic waves. This still doesn’t guarantee a tsunami, but again, it’s better to be safe than sorry. Measurements of sudden sea level changes from satellites can also indicate a coming tsunami, which is another one of the ways to predict the huge waves.
Another interesting way of predicting tsunamis is forecast modeling. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, the helpfulness of forecast modeling stems from its ability to provide an estimate of wave arrival time and wave height. The way it works is that scientists have a database of pre-computed scenarios of tsunamis. When there is seismic activity in any area of the ocean, scientists receive that data from a satellite and compare it to other data they have, and by this they can try to figure out what the eventual tsunami will be like.
This is an example of what a satellite measurement looked like in Samoa:
As mentioned before, tsunamis are very devastating natural disasters. The prospect of just one wave destroying an entire city is hard to believe, sure, but the amount of energy in just one of a series of tsunamis is massive. When people know for sure that a tsunami is coming, they all panic. This is because they don’t really have a secure safe haven. It’s important for them to get up somewhere high, but if they can’t do that, what can they do? On January 17, 2005, in Sri Lanka, the Sri Lanka Public Security Ministry decided to put its coastal communities somewhere else, 200m from the sea so that they would be safer. The Prajnopaya Foundation created prototypes of a safe house that should be over five times more resistant than normal houses. The prototype is very special – there are four independent linear supports that cause the resistance against a tsunami to quadruple, there is bamboo ventilation which can be customized by the customer, and the walls are made of concrete. This is all very well for Sri Lanka, but it is necessary to have these types of things to protect all cities from incoming tsunamis. Scientists and others are still on the search for something easy that will completely protect most cities, but so far no luck. As well as their prediction system, the safe house system still has some flaws that need to be worked out.
If the predictions of the tsunamis don’t happen right away, or are late in being communicated to the population of a city, then there needs to be some sort of warning system, some sort of way to prevent too much loss of property and any possible loss of life. There are two main known types of warning systems – the Regional Warning System and the International Warning System. Both systems work together to inform the city that a tsunami is going to take place, by using the data from other countries and local seismic data. The tsunami warning systems are pretty much foolproof because they check with a bunch of different places around the world before setting the alarm, to make sure that it’s not a false alarm for something so urgent.
Well, yes – when a city is destroyed, people lose their homes. But a destroyed city can also cause a lot of other problems for the country. The government tends to be quite frantic about getting the natural disaster cleaned up, and in the mean time, it neglects other things that are important for its country, such as its political system, what’s going on in neighboring countries, etc. Society-wise, the population of the country tends to decrease a lot – there is nearly no tourism, and people that have lived there all their lives often decide differently for future years. As well as that, nobody wants to hang around after a huge catastrophe, so the country doesn't make as much money or profit and the economy crashes. For the people that do live there, food is a problem. If the food that they consume is local, then they are out of luck and the government is required to provide them food. All of the stores are crushed, any possible fish are either dead or gone very far away, so what are the people supposed to do? The effect that tsunamis have on a country’s appearance, society, culture, environment, and economy is terrible. This is why I hope that scientists do eventually find a good system that works well for all cases, and gives the country a chance to protect itself.
This is only a little bit of what a tsunami can do:
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOAA. "Tsunami Modeling and Research." NOAA Center for Tsunami Research. Web. 22 Feb. 2011. .
Paulson, Tom. "Tsunami Detectives Hunt for Hidden Clues." Seattle News, Sports, Events, Entertainment | Seattlepi.com - Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Seattle Pi, 8 Jan. 2005. Web. 22 Feb. 2011.
"Tsunamis." U.S. SAR Task Force Main Page. United States Search and Rescue Task Force. Web. 23 Feb. 2011.
Achenbach, Joel, and Rob Stein. "Despite Advances, Science of Forecasting a Tsunami Is Inexact - Washingtonpost.com." Washington Post - Politics, National, World & D.C. Area News and Headlines - Washingtonpost.com. Washington Post, 28 Feb. 2010. Web. 24 Feb. 2011.
Buoy, Dart. "Tsunami Forecasting." Library ThinkQuest. Library ThinkQuest. Web. 23 Feb. 2011.
"Tsunami Safe(r) House." MIT SENSEable City Lab. Web. 24 Feb. 2011.
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